2027: Don’t treat Tinubu’s re-election as a done deal, lawyer warns

Human rights lawyer and United States Secretary of State Awardee on International Religious Freedom, Kola Alapinni, has warned against assuming that President Bola Tinubu will win re-election in 2027.

Alapinni issued the warning in a statement on Monday titled, “A Forecast Is Not a Verdict: Why The Economist Misreads 2027.”

He was responding to an assessment by The Economist on factors that could shape the 2027 presidential election.

In its October 1 report, titled “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway,” The Economist identified incumbency, opposition fragmentation, religion, voter turnout and political cynicism as factors that could favour Tinubu.

Alapinni argued that current political conditions cannot determine the outcome of the 2027 election.

He said the absence of a united opposition does not mean that a coalition cannot emerge before the election.

The lawyer also challenged the view that religion would determine voting patterns in the North and Middle Belt.

He argued that insecurity, economic hardship and other issues could influence voters more strongly.

Alapinni cited polling by SBM Intelligence, referenced by The Economist, which he said showed Tinubu trailing Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in Borno.

He also pointed to insecurity and displacement in Plateau and Benue states. According to him, these challenges could affect voting patterns and access to polling units.

Alapinni rejected the suggestion that political cynicism would automatically lead to voter apathy.

He said Nigerians facing insecurity, economic hardship and poor public services could instead use the election to express their dissatisfaction.

The lawyer also identified electricity supply as an issue that could influence voters. He questioned spending on solar infrastructure at the Presidential Villa while many households and businesses still face unreliable power supply.

Alapinni acknowledged the advantages that incumbency gives the ruling party, including political machinery, financial resources and voter mobilisation.

However, he said these advantages do not guarantee victory for Tinubu.

He also acknowledged concerns over insecurity, vote-buying and possible influence over election logistics. But he cautioned against treating those concerns as proof that the election result has already been decided.

Alapinni said the eventual outcome would depend significantly on Nigerians’ ability to participate and exercise their franchise.

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