Full text of Atiku Abubakar’s speech at The LCCI

I thank the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry for giving me this platform to speak to such a distinguished audience and on such a germane issue.

As you are aware I have been in the private sector running my businesses and feel, therefore, very comfortable amid captains of industry, entrepreneurs and businessmen and women. So, this is like home coming to me. It is Business2Business. A meeting of like minds.

First, in times of uncertainty such as we are experiencing today, it is the hallmark of leadership for business and political actors to pause and anticipate before taking the next steps. Our actions today will have consequences on our tomorrow and the day after.

Nigeria is in transition as the APC leaves the stage and the PDP takes over—with your support and goodwill—come May 2023. It is your duty, therefore, to take stock of the assets (if there are any) and liabilities (which will be huge!!!) of the APC administration.

It is also your responsibility to interrogate those who aspire to govern the country. You must assess their understanding of the environment, their policy priorities, and their strategies for dealing with a plethora of local and national issues.

You should never allow political slogans to take the place of development plans. Political propaganda on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram is never a substitute for proper socio-economic and political agenda.

The private sector is key to any government’s development agenda and must be always listened to.

According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, the public sector accounts for only 7.5 percent and the private sector, 78.9 percent of national consumption expenditure.

Indeed, 85% of the investments in the Medium-Term National Development Plan 2021-2025 are envisaged to be private sector funded.

According to the Nigeria Infrastructure Master Plan, Nigeria has an infrastructure financing deficit of approximately US$3trillion over the next 30 years. This means a financing requirement of approximately US$100 billion per annum which cannot be met by the public sector.

A warm handshake with the private sector is inevitable for any economic policy or programme to succeed. Indeed, private sector leadership in driving growth is the first of the three key principles of my economic growth and development agenda.

In all my life endeavors, whether as a businessman or as a public officer, I have always nurtured a desire to create abundant opportunities for people and enhance their capability to explore those opportunities so that they live a happy, healthy, and productive life.

I feel fulfilled when I create prosperity for others.

Creating economic opportunities for Nigerians will represent significant implication for social cohesion and national security.

Increased jobs and income opportunities will reduce the likelihood of our youth being involved in crime, violence and conflict motivated by manipulating religious or ethnic differences.

It is important to first understand where we are because policy prescriptions must always be preceded by diagnosis. So, before I outline the contours of my economic growth and development agenda, permit me to remind ourselves of the key challenges facing the economy.

The Nigerian economy is crawling rather than growing. Per capita income, a measure of citizens’ well-being, has progressively fallen since 2015 because of declining output and a fast-growing population. Nigerians are worse-off today than they were in 2015.

The oil and gas sector, which is the economy’s lifeline has suffered decline in 19 out of 30 quarters since 2014. For many economic sectors and for the ordinary citizens it still feels as in a recession.

Under the present administration our people are not working. More than 23 million people are out of jobs. In just 5 years between 2015 and 2020, the number of fully employed people dropped by 54%, from 68 million to 31 million people.

The number of unemployed people is more than the population of Lagos state or the inhabitants of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abia, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Kwara and Nasarawa states combined!

What is even more worrisome is that the majority of the unemployed are young men and women, who lack not only the means to survive but any hope for the future. The number of unemployed youths increased by 9 million from 4 million in 2015 to 13 million in 2020.

High youth unemployment and limited employment opportunities pose serious economic and security challenges. Ensuring there are enough jobs for Nigeria’s youth is therefore already an urgent concern.

More Nigerians are poorer and more miserable today than in 2015.

Basic commodities are now beyond the reach of the average Nigerian. A loaf of bread costs 100% more today than it did in 2020. Farmers now pay more than 200% more for a bag of fertilizer -if they see it-than they did in 2020.

The APC-led government is dressing Nigeria in borrowed robes!

Nigeria is broke. Nigeria under the APC-led government has consistently run-on budget deficits since it came to power in 2015. These budget deficits are often above the 3% threshold permissible under the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

For the first time in Nigeria’s history, the FGN paid more in debt service than it earned! By spending more than 100% of its revenue for debt service, Nigeria is breaching one of the applicable debt-sustainability thresholds.

Capital has taken a flight. Policy incoherence and flip-flops combined with internal insecurity continue to pose a significant risk to investment and thus output growth.

We have lost our esteemed position as Africa’s preferred investment destination to less endowed nations!

The failure of leadership by the APC-led government is staring every Nigerian in the face as the country’s economic, social, political and security challenges persist and assume frightening dimensions.

Nigeria has the potential to double its GDP by 2030 and achieve a per capita income of approximately US$5,000.

Our economic growth and development agenda seeks primarily to stimulate the growth of the economy. It envisions an economy that is modern, dynamic, and competitive, capable of taking its rightful place among the top 20 economies of the world.

We anticipate growth from our policies that seek to revitalize the real sectors including agriculture, manufacturing and MSMEs.

Re-building infrastructure and reducing infrastructure deficit will enhance the carrying capacity of the economy and unleash growth and wealth creation.

We will elevate production for export to a top policy priority and long-term investment priority and promote export of manufactured goods.

How do we deliver on these lofty goals? First, a warm handshake with the private sector. We will support the private sector to drive growth. We will establish strong partnership in investing in infrastructure, creating jobs, income and in the fight against poverty.

We will listen to the private sector more. Understanding the private sector and securing their buy-in when policies are designed will determine the success of our economic growth and development agenda.

Through regular dialogue with the private sector, we will build consensus, improve trust between us and make new reform initiatives easier to implement and sustainable.

There will be more clarity, coherence, and consistency (the 3Cs) in policy. Nothing could be more threatening to investment flows than an environment that is full of policy flip-flops.

We will take tough and difficult decisions on security matters without fear or favour. Investment is a coward animal and is fearful of conflicts and insecurity.

I will break the jinx in infrastructure financing.

We will establish an “Infrastructure Development Unit” [IDU] in the Presidency, with a coordinating function and a specific mandate of working with the MDAs to fast track and drive the process of infrastructure development in the country.

As a short-term measure to ensure enhanced supply within the first year of the new administration, I shall initiate and implement an emergency power programme (EPPs) that can deliver additional capacity in certain key areas.

Over the medium term, I will then go on to propose legislation for the removal of the entire electricity value chain from the exclusive list and give states the power to generate, transmit and distribute electricity for themselves.

One lesson we have learnt recently is that an industrial dispute with the FG in Abuja should not affect an industry in Lagos or a factory in Aba or in Kano or even an average Nigerian who just wants to get home, watch the news and sleep under a ceiling fan.

Investments in additional generation capacity are futile without consideration for the complementary transmission and distribution infrastructure to wheel the additional energy.

Thirdly, ahead of procuring additional generation, both transmission and distribution capacities would be enhanced with private sector support for investments.

We shall incentivize private investors to invest in the development of multiple green-field mini-grid transmission systems to be looped into the super-grid in the medium to long term while allowing the FG focus on policy, regulation, and standardization.

I will stimulate growth to create jobs and wage war against hunger. The economy must grow for economic opportunities to abound.

Poverty reduction shall be the centrepiece of our economic development agenda and economic performance shall henceforth be measured by the number of jobs created and the number of people lifted out of poverty.

Within the first 100 days in office, I will create an Economic Stimulus Fund with an initial investment capacity of approximately US$10 billion to prioritize support to MSMEs across all the economic sectors.

I will undertake far reaching fiscal restructuring to improve liquidity as well as the management of our fiscal resources.

First, we will undertake an immediate review of government spending with a view to eliminating all leakages arising from subsidy payments.

Second, stop all fiscal support to ailing State-Owned enterprises.

Third, take steps to improve spending efficiency by gradual reduction of government recurrent expenditures. Over the medium term, recurrent expenditures should not exceed 45% of the budget.

Fourth, undertake a review of government procurement processes to ensure value-for-money and eliminate all leakages.

Finally, focus on non-debt financing by promoting a private sector-led infrastructure development fund for the financing and delivery of key infrastructure projects.

I will take immediate steps to slow down the rate of debt accumulation by promoting more Public Private Partnerships in critical infrastructure funding and identifying more innovative funding options.

We will Review the country’s debt strategy by focusing on concessional and semi-concessional sources with lower interest rates and relatively long-term maturity. The government must reduce the issuance of short-dated debt instruments.

Our economy is bleak and our challenges daunting. No one should downplay the enormity of the tasks ahead. Indeed, I cannot think of a more daunting challenge than restoring confidence in the future of Nigeria as a dynamic economy and stable democracy.

I have a good grasp of the challenges bedeviling Nigeria. I know the root causes of our problems. I know that many of these problems are self-inflicted and can be reversed if we are determined. AND WE ARE DETERMINED!

I will not come unprepared. It is not in my character as a businessman or as a public officer to be caught off guard. My policy document contains the right policies that will be timely delivered.

Finally, in economic reforms and economic management matters, I am not a novice. I have a history of economic reform and economic transformation.

As head of the economic management team, (1999-2007) I was instrumental in the design of a private sector revival strategy and advocated for the opening of the economy for private sector investments in a number of sectors.

Remember the good old days of economic growth with macroeconomic stability, low rates of unemployment and low poverty headcount.

Experience counts and to avoid the mistakes of the past, never again should Nigerians hand over their future to a green horn.