Sweden vs USA in 2023 Women’s World Cup Knockout Clash: Preview, prediction, lineups

In what promises to be a closely contested match, the Opta supercomputer gives the United States the upper hand, with a 44.1% chance of victory within the regulation 90 minutes. As the defending world champions, they are seen as the favorites to advance.

Notably, Sweden displayed exceptional proficiency in corner situations during the group stage, accumulating 3.3 expected goals (xG) from corners, surpassing all other teams at the tournament by more than two xG.

Surprisingly, the USA’s performance in the group stage was their weakest ever in a Women’s World Cup, securing only five points. They also underperformed their expected goals (xG) by -3.8, but their defense remained solid, with goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher facing just one shot on target, which resulted in a goal.

Conversely, Sweden impressed with a perfect record in their group stage, including a resounding 5-0 victory over Italy on Matchday 2. They have reached the knockout stage in eight out of nine Women’s World Cup appearances, with three semi-final appearances in their last four knockout stage ventures.

The USA’s track record in the knockout stage of the Women’s World Cup has been remarkable, winning their last eight matches. Their only defeat in knockout stages (excluding penalty shootouts) was a 4-0 loss to Brazil in the 2007 semi-finals.

Sweden’s proficiency in corner kicks, as well as their clinical finishing, sets the stage for an intense encounter. While USA’s Alex Morgan seeks to join an elite group of players who have scored ten or more Women’s World Cup goals for their country, she is yet to find the net in this year’s tournament, despite having the most shots among her teammates (14).

Sweden and the USA have a storied history in the Women’s World Cup, meeting for the seventh time in the competition’s history, making it the most-played fixture. USA has dominated the head-to-head matchups, winning four of the previous six encounters.

While Sweden appears stronger on paper, the Opta supercomputer still favors the United States to progress, given their impressive track record of advancing from the group stage and their history of success in knockout matches. However, Sweden should not be underestimated, with a respectable 28.0% chance of victory in regular time and an almost identical 27.9% chance of the game heading to extra time.

Sweden Squad: Jennifer Falk, Zećira Mušović, Tove Enblom, Linda Sembrant, Magdalena Eriksson, Jonna Andersson, Amanda Ilestedt, Nathalie Björn, Hanna Lundkvist, Anna Sandberg, Caroline Seger, Kosovare Asllani, Olivia Schough, Elin Rubensson, Filippa Angeldahl, Hanna Bennison, Johanna Rytting Kaneryd, Sofia Jakobsson, Stina Blackstenius, Fridolina Rolfö, Lina Hurtig, Madelen Janogy, Rebecka Blomqvist.

United States Squad: Aubrey Kingsbury, Casey Murphy, Alyssa Naeher, Alana Cook, Crystal Dunn, Emily Fox, Naomi Girma, Sofia Huerta, Kelley O’Hara, Emily Sonnett, Savannah DeMelo, Julie Ertz, Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavelle, Kristie Mewis, Ashley Sanchez, Andi Sullivan, Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe, Trinity Rodman, Sophia Smith, Alyssa Thompson, Lynn Williams.