One-party dominance may trigger military intervention – Analyst warns

A political analyst, Aminu Rabiu, has cautioned that Nigeria could be edging toward a one-party dominant system, a development he believes may erode democratic principles and potentially pave the way for military interference in governance.

Speaking during an exclusive interview with Daily Post, Rabiu noted that despite Nigeria’s constitutional recognition as a multi-party democracy, the recent wave of defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress signals an unusual consolidation of power.

“Looking at the current trend and the increasing defections, it is clear that the nation is gradually moving towards a one-party dominance under the APC,” he stated.

He drew parallels with 1993 during the regime of former military leader Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, who operated a two-party structure comprising the Social Democratic Party and the National Republican Convention.

“Even under military rule, two parties coexisted. Why should democracy not accommodate the same?” he queried.

Rabiu warned that the growing imbalance threatens democratic accountability, stressing that a weakened opposition would undermine checks and balances.

“If the system slides into a one-party state, there will be no effective oversight. Opposition parties are essential for transparency and holding those in power accountable,” he said.

He explained that the Peoples Democratic Party, which has remained the main opposition since losing power in 2015 when Muhammadu Buhari defeated Goodluck Jonathan, is currently weakened by internal divisions, leadership disputes, and legal challenges.

According to him, the African Democratic Congress is beginning to gain traction as an alternative platform, with politicians across party lines forming alliances to challenge the ruling party.

Rabiu further alleged that state institutions are being deployed against opposition figures, citing cases involving Nasir El-Rufai and Abubakar Malami as examples tied to their political positions.

“These actions suggest that legal institutions are being used to target opposition voices,” he claimed.

He warned that such a climate could empower the executive arm excessively, increasing the risk of corruption and weakening democratic accountability.

“When the executive operates without restraint, corruption is likely to rise, and democracy suffers,” he added.

Rabiu also linked the situation to historical precedents, recalling how political dominance and suppression of opposition contributed to instability during Nigeria’s First Republic, eventually leading to the January 1966 military coup.

He further referenced the Second Republic, where the National Party of Nigeria was accused of using state power against opposition groups, including the Peoples Redemption Party, Great Nigeria Peoples Party, and Unity Party of Nigeria a period that preceded the 1983 military takeover.

“This kind of political atmosphere can create conditions that encourage military intervention,” he warned.

Rabiu pointed out that the scale of political alignment with the ruling party is unprecedented, noting that about 30 to 31 out of Nigeria’s 36 state governors are now affiliated with the APC, with several defections recorded in recent months.

He also expressed concern that the trend may discourage voter participation.

“Citizens may begin to feel their votes do not matter if the ruling party is seen as unbeatable. This could lead to low turnout in the 2027 elections,” he said.

The analyst called for urgent measures to safeguard democracy, including intensified civic education, stronger involvement from civil society groups, and attention from the international community.