Canada votes for new government amid rising tensions with Trump

Canada is set to elect a new government on Monday amid growing concerns about annexation threats from the United States and the escalating trade war with President Donald Trump, a key issue that has defined the election campaign.

The Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, who became the new Prime Minister last month, was initially poised for a significant defeat to the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre. However, a shift in polling trends followed Trump’s public attacks on Canada, prompting a reversal in the race.

Carney, 60, has never held elected office but brings a wealth of experience from his career in investment banking and his previous role as the central bank governor in both Canada and the UK. He argues that his global financial expertise uniquely equips him to handle the ongoing trade challenges with the US under Trump.

Throughout his campaign, Carney has pledged to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States by revitalizing domestic trade and exploring new international opportunities. He has repeatedly warned that the US under Trump seeks to undermine Canada, stating, “They want to break us, so they can own us.”

“We don’t need chaos, we need calm. We don’t need anger, we need an adult,” Carney stated in the final days of his campaign.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, has focused on domestic issues that made Justin Trudeau’s tenure unpopular, particularly the rising cost of living. Poilievre has claimed that Carney would only continue the “lost Liberal decade,” arguing that a new Conservative government is necessary to tackle crime, housing shortages, and other pressing issues unrelated to the US.

“You cannot handle another four years of this,” Poilievre asserted over the weekend.

Although Poilievre has criticized Trump, he insists that Canada’s vulnerability to a hostile US is a direct result of Trudeau’s weak governance over the past decade.

Final polling numbers indicate a tight race, but Carney is currently favored. Surveys have consistently shown that voters view him as the best candidate to manage relations with Trump.

Jeff Sims, a Quebec resident near Ottawa, expressed confidence in Carney’s credentials, stating, “Two central banks under his belt, I think that’s a good pick.”

At a Conservative rally in Oakville, Ontario, 70-year-old Janice Wyner expressed disillusionment with Trudeau’s policies and shared concerns about Canada’s future, particularly in light of threats from the US.

Like many others, Nadine Sokol, 41, cited the “threat coming from the US” as her top concern in the election.

If the Liberals win, it would represent one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history. Just months ago, when Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, the Conservatives were leading by more than 20 points in most polls, and Poilievre seemed poised to become the next prime minister.

However, Carney’s entry into the race and the growing unease surrounding Trump have reshaped the campaign dynamics. Recent polls show the Liberals with 42.8 percent support nationally, while the Conservatives have 38.8 percent.

Smaller parties, including the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the separatist Bloc Quebecois, will play a key role in determining the outcome. Past elections have seen these smaller parties siphon votes from the Liberals, particularly in Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, but current polls suggest they may face setbacks.

Approximately 29 million of Canada’s 41 million people are eligible to vote, with a record 7.3 million casting advanced ballots. Polls will open at 8:30 am local time in Newfoundland and Labrador, and Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament. A majority requires 172 seats. The Liberals won a majority in 2015 but have governed with a minority since 2019.